AvexPulse — Prediksi Rilis USD
🗓️ This month + next · mega HIGH
Stance: 🟡 Neutral · ⚪ WAIT print (bukan sinyal entry)
Minggu ini fokus mosaic tenaga kerja AS: ISM Senin malam → ADP Rabu → Claims Kamis → NFP Jumat 19:30 WIB. Prediksi ≠ Actual. Soft ADP/Claims vs mild rebound NFP = path campur; CPI 12 Aug masih n/a (cons tipis) — jangan trade angka kosong. Sep FOMC hold base sampai data Agustus land.
Top predictions
1. Nonfarm Payrolls — Jumat 7 Agu 19:30 WIB
Pred 95K · Cons 88K · Prev 57K
Conf 52% · Bias Bullish USD · Impact Extreme · Vol High
Base: rebound dari prior lemah; ADP lebih dingin → jangan kejar hot ekstrem
2. ADP Non-Farm — Rabu 5 Agu 19:15 WIB
Pred 65K · Cons 71K · Prev 98K
Conf 50% · Bias Bearish USD · Impact High · Vol Med
Base: cooling private payrolls sebagai lead NFP
3. ISM Manufacturing PMI — Senin 3 Agu 21:00 WIB
Pred 54.2 · Cons 54.0 · Prev 53.3
Conf 52% · Bias Bullish USD · Impact High · Vol Med
Base: tetap ekspansi >50 · sedikit di atas cons
4. Federal Funds Rate — 17 Sep ~01:00 WIB
Pred hold · Cons n/a
Conf 55% · Bias Neutral · Impact Extreme · Vol High
Base: hold data-dependent; tone/dots > 25bp untuk USD
5. Unemployment Claims — Kamis 6 Agu 19:30 WIB
Pred 210K · Cons 205K · Prev 197K
Conf 52% · Bias Bearish USD · Impact Medium · Vol Med
Base: undertone soft ke NFP
🔎 Focus
- Hormati gate ±30m HIGH — Sit On Hands di print
- Reaksi: Actual vs prediksi (bukan hanya vs consensus)
- Weekend sekarang: FX+metals CLOSED — crypto only sampai NY open